Post by bigmac on May 7, 2007 13:04:48 GMT
When all the fantasy is removed take Kerry to lift Sam
Monday May 7th 2007
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Dublin footballer Paul Casey gives a helping hand to Stephen Browne and Niamh Rushe from St Christopher's Special School, Longford, at the Active Schools Awards event in The Helix
AT least Kilkenny are honest about it. They know they have no chance of winning the Sam Maguire Cup, so they do not even bother taking part.
However, at this time of year a whole lot of other counties prefer to engage in fantasy football rather than face the truth, which is that they have absolutely no chance of winning the Sam Maguire Cup.
Fantasy football allows serious GAA people make fools of themselves by suggesting that some dark horse might win the championship, but I have never seen such an animal collect the Sam Maguire in my time.
The brutal reality about the All-Ireland football championship is that the vast majority of the 33 county units that take part have not got a snowballs chance in hell of winning it.
In the past 40 years just ELEVEN counties have taken Sam Maguire home.
When we consider that there were on average 32 teams who played in each of those 40 championships, giving a total 'pool' of 1280 competitors in that time, and only 11 managed to win even once, it is obvious that 'All-Ireland championship' is a misnomer as far as the other 20 plus counties are concerned.
A figure which even more dramatically shows the domination of the All-Ireland by a handful of counties is that in the past 40 years 82.5 per cent of the titles (33) were won by just SIX counties. These were Kerry (14), Dublin (5), Meath (5), Offaly (3), Down (3) and Cork (3).
Only the modern day emergence of strong Ulster teams which saw Tyrone, Armagh, Derry and Donegal winning five titles in the past 15 years prevents the last 40 years from being a complete fiasco as far as distribution of All-Ireland titles is concerned.
For example, there is no chance of a team winning the All-Ireland for the first time this year, full stop.
Nor is there any chance whatever of these teams taking home Sam next September:
Louth, Wicklow, Wexford, Kildare, Carlow, Offaly, Westmeath, Longford, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon, Antrim, Down, Fermanagh, Monaghan, Cavan, Waterford, Limerick, Clare, Tipperary, New York, London.
Generous
That's 22 of the 33 (66%) out of the equation straight away - and I am being generous here.
The next category is made up of teams who have a very remote chance of winning in 2007: Meath, Derry, Laois. That means we have just eight of the
33 still standing : Cork, Kerry, Galway, Mayo, Dublin, Donegal, Tyrone and Armagh. It is virtually certain the All-Ireland champions will come from that bunch but there are caveats about several of those too.
Armagh have been slipping a little bit for a while now and this year they have been badly battered with serious, long-term injuries to several key players.
The latest victim of the damaged cruciate knee ligament was the great Francie Bellew who is a seminal figure in the whole Armagh football story in recent years. His absence will be devastating on football and psychological grounds.
Laois suffered a serious psychological blow by failing to win the U-21 final on Saturday night when they literally kicked it away, but also lost out in the physical stakes to an excellent Cork side when that physical presence told in the final 10 minutes.
The Laois senior team have the same basic problem with many talented, but slightly-built players.
Galway is a team on which transition has been forced by retirements of players such as Michael Donnellan and others and do not seem to have the firepower to cut it at the highest level just now.
Cork, too, are caught between bringing in young talented players and maintaining a hard core of experienced performers. They also have a terrible recent Croke Park record.
Therefore if we remove these four from the All-Ireland race because of their various problems we are left with just FOUR real contenders, Kerry, Tyrone, Donegal and Dublin.
The presence of Dublin in that quartet is not based on football ability alone, but rather on the proposition that if they can play all their matches in Croke Park, then they can build up a momentum that does not apply to any other county and which can sweep Dublin players along on a sea of summer euphoria which might cover up some of the major flaws exposed in the team in recent years.
It has not done so in this century so far - but one never knows.
Donegal's presence in my last four is not just based on their recent league form, but also on some powerful championship displays in Croke Park and elsewhere in recent years.
Boost
This is is not an overnight success team but the League victory could be a critical boost for a team that has shown a brittle temperament on occasion in the past.
Tyrone too have serious doubts attached to them with regard to availability of key players such as Stephen O'Neill and Brian McGuigan because of injury.
Without them, they have little or no chance. With them, then they could be re-energised, although the odds are against a team coming back to win a third All-Ireland in five years with two one-year gaps. This has not happened in the last 50 years at least.
That leaves us with the holders Kerry who are hot favourites with the bookies, the people who REALLY know the form.
But they too have clouds over them with Seamus Moynihan Michael McCarthy gone from the backline and the real possibility some opponents will have figured out a way to counteract Kieran Donaghy in the full-forward line.
Still, the records over the past 40 years show clearly - if in doubt go for Kerry and that is why they are entitled to be favourites for Sam in 2007.
Eugene McGee
Monday May 7th 2007
ADVERTISEMENT
Dublin footballer Paul Casey gives a helping hand to Stephen Browne and Niamh Rushe from St Christopher's Special School, Longford, at the Active Schools Awards event in The Helix
AT least Kilkenny are honest about it. They know they have no chance of winning the Sam Maguire Cup, so they do not even bother taking part.
However, at this time of year a whole lot of other counties prefer to engage in fantasy football rather than face the truth, which is that they have absolutely no chance of winning the Sam Maguire Cup.
Fantasy football allows serious GAA people make fools of themselves by suggesting that some dark horse might win the championship, but I have never seen such an animal collect the Sam Maguire in my time.
The brutal reality about the All-Ireland football championship is that the vast majority of the 33 county units that take part have not got a snowballs chance in hell of winning it.
In the past 40 years just ELEVEN counties have taken Sam Maguire home.
When we consider that there were on average 32 teams who played in each of those 40 championships, giving a total 'pool' of 1280 competitors in that time, and only 11 managed to win even once, it is obvious that 'All-Ireland championship' is a misnomer as far as the other 20 plus counties are concerned.
A figure which even more dramatically shows the domination of the All-Ireland by a handful of counties is that in the past 40 years 82.5 per cent of the titles (33) were won by just SIX counties. These were Kerry (14), Dublin (5), Meath (5), Offaly (3), Down (3) and Cork (3).
Only the modern day emergence of strong Ulster teams which saw Tyrone, Armagh, Derry and Donegal winning five titles in the past 15 years prevents the last 40 years from being a complete fiasco as far as distribution of All-Ireland titles is concerned.
For example, there is no chance of a team winning the All-Ireland for the first time this year, full stop.
Nor is there any chance whatever of these teams taking home Sam next September:
Louth, Wicklow, Wexford, Kildare, Carlow, Offaly, Westmeath, Longford, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon, Antrim, Down, Fermanagh, Monaghan, Cavan, Waterford, Limerick, Clare, Tipperary, New York, London.
Generous
That's 22 of the 33 (66%) out of the equation straight away - and I am being generous here.
The next category is made up of teams who have a very remote chance of winning in 2007: Meath, Derry, Laois. That means we have just eight of the
33 still standing : Cork, Kerry, Galway, Mayo, Dublin, Donegal, Tyrone and Armagh. It is virtually certain the All-Ireland champions will come from that bunch but there are caveats about several of those too.
Armagh have been slipping a little bit for a while now and this year they have been badly battered with serious, long-term injuries to several key players.
The latest victim of the damaged cruciate knee ligament was the great Francie Bellew who is a seminal figure in the whole Armagh football story in recent years. His absence will be devastating on football and psychological grounds.
Laois suffered a serious psychological blow by failing to win the U-21 final on Saturday night when they literally kicked it away, but also lost out in the physical stakes to an excellent Cork side when that physical presence told in the final 10 minutes.
The Laois senior team have the same basic problem with many talented, but slightly-built players.
Galway is a team on which transition has been forced by retirements of players such as Michael Donnellan and others and do not seem to have the firepower to cut it at the highest level just now.
Cork, too, are caught between bringing in young talented players and maintaining a hard core of experienced performers. They also have a terrible recent Croke Park record.
Therefore if we remove these four from the All-Ireland race because of their various problems we are left with just FOUR real contenders, Kerry, Tyrone, Donegal and Dublin.
The presence of Dublin in that quartet is not based on football ability alone, but rather on the proposition that if they can play all their matches in Croke Park, then they can build up a momentum that does not apply to any other county and which can sweep Dublin players along on a sea of summer euphoria which might cover up some of the major flaws exposed in the team in recent years.
It has not done so in this century so far - but one never knows.
Donegal's presence in my last four is not just based on their recent league form, but also on some powerful championship displays in Croke Park and elsewhere in recent years.
Boost
This is is not an overnight success team but the League victory could be a critical boost for a team that has shown a brittle temperament on occasion in the past.
Tyrone too have serious doubts attached to them with regard to availability of key players such as Stephen O'Neill and Brian McGuigan because of injury.
Without them, they have little or no chance. With them, then they could be re-energised, although the odds are against a team coming back to win a third All-Ireland in five years with two one-year gaps. This has not happened in the last 50 years at least.
That leaves us with the holders Kerry who are hot favourites with the bookies, the people who REALLY know the form.
But they too have clouds over them with Seamus Moynihan Michael McCarthy gone from the backline and the real possibility some opponents will have figured out a way to counteract Kieran Donaghy in the full-forward line.
Still, the records over the past 40 years show clearly - if in doubt go for Kerry and that is why they are entitled to be favourites for Sam in 2007.
Eugene McGee
